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Five major central banks decide between Wednesday and Friday, led by the Fed on October 28. Markets expect holds but a hawkish tone, with a December hike still possible. The dollar has slipped from recent highs, the yen is rallying, and gold sits near $4,100.
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Macro made simple
Three ideas explain most of forex. 1. Higher interest rates pull money into a currency, so it rises. 2. Inflation forces central banks to raise or hold rates. 3. Gold pays no interest, so it usually falls when rates and the dollar rise. Markets move on surprises: the result compared with the forecast, not the number alone. Tap an event below.
CPI (Inflation)US/UK/EU monthly
What it is: How fast prices are rising for everyday goods.
Why it matters: Central banks fight inflation with interest rates. Hot inflation = rates stay high or rise.
Usual reaction: Higher than forecast: currency usually up, gold down. Lower than forecast: currency down, gold up.
Interest rate decisionFed, ECB, BoE, BoJ
What it is: The central bank sets the cost of borrowing for the whole economy.
Why it matters: Higher rates attract money into a currency, because savers earn more there. Traders trade the surprise and the tone of the statement, not just the number.
Usual reaction: Hawkish (higher or tougher than expected): currency up, gold down. Dovish (cuts or soft hints): currency down, gold up.
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)US, first Friday of the month
What it is: How many jobs the US economy added last month.
Why it matters: Strong jobs mean a strong economy, so the Fed has less reason to cut rates. It is one of the biggest movers in forex.
Usual reaction: Beat: USD up, gold and EURUSD down. Miss: the opposite. Wage growth in the report matters too.
Unemployment rateUS/UK/EU monthly
What it is: The share of people looking for work who can't find it.
Why it matters: Central banks target low unemployment and stable prices. A rising rate hints at a weakening economy and future rate cuts.
Usual reaction: Lower than expected: currency up. Higher: currency down.
GDPQuarterly
What it is: The total size of the economy, and whether it is growing or shrinking.
Why it matters: Growth supports a currency. Two quarters of shrinking GDP is the textbook definition of a recession.
Usual reaction: Stronger than forecast: currency up. Weaker: currency down, and rate-cut talk grows.
PMIMonthly, manufacturing and services
What it is: A survey of business managers. Above 50 means growth, below 50 means shrinking.
Why it matters: It comes out early, so it is a first look at the economy before official data.
Usual reaction: Above forecast or above 50: currency up. Below 50 and falling: currency down.
Retail salesMonthly
What it is: How much shoppers are spending.
Why it matters: Consumer spending is most of the economy in the US and UK. Strong spending means growth, and it can also mean inflation.
Usual reaction: Beat: currency up. Miss: currency down.
FOMC minutes and Fed speakersUS, regular
What it is: The notes of the Fed's last meeting, plus speeches from its officials.
Why it matters: Markets try to guess the next rate move. One comment from the Fed chair can move price within seconds.
Usual reaction: Hints of cuts: USD down, gold up. Hints of holding or hiking: USD up, gold down.
PPIMonthly
What it is: Inflation at the factory gate, meaning prices producers pay.
Why it matters: It often shows where consumer inflation (CPI) is heading in the coming months.
Usual reaction: Hotter than forecast: currency up. Cooler: currency down.
Jobless claimsUS, every Thursday
What it is: How many people filed for unemployment benefits this week.
Why it matters: A quick weekly health check on the job market. Smaller mover than NFP.
Usual reaction: Lower claims: USD up. Higher claims: USD down.
Trade balanceMonthly
What it is: Exports minus imports.
Why it matters: A country that sells more than it buys sees demand for its currency. This matters most for AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY.
Usual reaction: Bigger surplus than forecast: currency up. Bigger deficit: currency down.
Reactions are typical, not guaranteed. Markets can move either way, especially in the first minutes. Educational only, not financial advice.
Sample candles. Shaded boxes are automatic supply (red) and demand (green) zones. They disappear once price breaks through them.
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